First thing in the morning of Nov 6, it appears that Donald Trump has completed the most amazing comeback in American political history, and possibly in the entire history of global electoral politics. It appears that Mr Trump will win both the popular vote and the electoral college, the latter by a significant margin.
Down the ticket, President Trump will have a Republican majority in the Senate, and may also have a majority in the House of Representatives.
Early indicators are that there will be a surge in equity prices in the short term, in response to the Republican candidate’s promise to materially reduce corporate taxes and regulation. The US dollar surged and long bonds sold off. Bitcoin reached record highs.
The Trump campaign made it clear that tariffs are likely to be imposed across an unprecedented range of imports, potentially on everything America imports. Harsh measures are likely to be taken against illegal immigrants and economic refugees as well. These will probably be among the first actions of the new Administration.
There may well be a realignment in world foreign policy as dramatic as the domestic political realignment that has happened in American party politics. A much more critical attitude towards alliances like NATO, lack of support for Ukraine’s continued war with Russia, and dislike of trade deals like USMCA, adds up to a very uncomfortable time for Europe, Canada and Mexico.
His opponents painted a picture of Mr Trump as a man intent on vengeance and chaos. He was accused of many heinous things, politically and personally, in the course of the campaign. To his supporters he is a man of destiny, restoring the American Dream, reversing the immiseration of the working class wrought by globalization, and ending the “savage wars of peace” that have drained American morale and treasure in the last sixty years.
Dream or nightmare? The next four years will tell.
– Richard Rooney
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